Although the week is not over yet, there are not many releases pending this Friday that should particularly move the markets. An important event in the next week will be the FED meeting. Then it becomes clear whether the rate hike will come in the middle of the year or be postponed further.
Economy and monetary policy
EU: The German trade balance fell in January. Exports have declined significantly. Imports have also fallen. Italy's industrial production was negative in January compared to both the previous month and the previous year. An increase on a monthly basis was expected. France's labor market disappointed with zero growth in the fourth quarter.
German consumer prices performed better in February, but as expected, with an increase of 0.9% on the previous month and 0.1% on the previous year. French consumer prices rose significantly compared to the previous month, exceeding expectations - no increase in prices compared to the previous year. The Spaniards also published consumer prices. As expected, these were also positive. Consumer prices in Italy were better than expected in February. EU industrial production was unfortunately negative in January.
USA: Retail sales from the USA were on the agenda. These fell contrary to expectations in February. Core retail sales also fell. The data disappoint across the board. However, the labor market continues to develop positively: applications for unemployment benefits fell significantly this week. After the surprisingly positive job market data last Friday, it was not a surprise.
GB: Unfortunately, industrial production was negative in January. A positive value was expected. However, the trade balance in January was positive. The deficit has decreased more than expected.
Monetary policy: No relevant news or decisions regarding major currencies had been published from the monetary policy ranks until the start of the ECB QE program on Monday, The euro fell to an 11-year low at just under $ 1.05 per euro.
Technical assessment of the markets:
EUR / USD: As a result of the positive US job market data on Friday last week, the euro fell against the US dollar to an 11-year low at just under $ 1.05 per euro. Technically speaking, there is support in this area as a trend line, on which the course initially rebounded. It is reasonable to assume that the course will level off in this area by next week. Trading opportunities arise below the trend line towards parity. Depending on what the FED decides next week, an upward spike cannot be ruled out.
GBP / USD: The British pound depreciated massively as the US dollar strengthened and more than just made up for the recovery. The currency pair is currently trading at $ 1.4796 per pound sterling. A sustained push further down should be very dynamic. Support is also very rare on a weekly basis.
AUD / USD: The Australian dollar appears to be continuing its downward trend. The currency pair has pulled back on the breakout line of the technical flag and the 20's moving average. A short entry with the target of $ 0.75 per New Zealand dollar could currently be recommended.
S&P 500: The US leading index has a short-term turnaround on Thursday laid down, which was to be expected. Poor retail sales may have served as a catalyst. An increase up to the 20s moving average would be likely at first. It remains to be seen whether it will be a sustainable increase.
DAX: The leading German index is clearly benefiting from the ECB's QE program and the weak euro. However, a correction would be overdue. However, you do not have to speculate in advance, but can wait and see the development. From a significant break in the 20s moving average, it becomes clear that a lot is brewing. Until then, the current direction is still long, which is clearly indicated by the upward trend. Even as a market technician, however, it makes little sense to speculate on a medium-term basis.
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