The current week was as expected, but driven by political influences. The negotiations between Greece and the EU developed from "stick to stick". Neither of the two negotiating partners wants to be compliant. After it became clear that Greece would apply for new aid, European equity markets in particular, such as the DAX index, rose. US indices initially performed rather weakly as the economic data disappointed. However, since the Fed announced little news about the imminent rise in interest rates, the US markets also remained stable.
Economy and monetary policy
EU: The EU became the beginning of Week first published the trade balance. The balance increased significantly in December 2014. German economic indicators from the ZEW Institute: The economic indicator for the current situation turned positive in February, while ZEW expectations rose, but only slightly less than expected. ZEW economic expectations for the entire eurozone were better than expected.
Consumer prices from the peripheral countries were on the agenda. Both French and Italian consumer prices declined. In the case of Italy, prices met the expectations of the consensus, while France's consumer prices were well below expectations.
However, with the German producer price index, the data disappointed market participants. In January, the EPI fell well below expectations in both annual and monthly terms. The German purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector also declined in February, while the services sector continued to develop positively. This also applies to the entire EU zone.
USA: The real estate sector in particular was highlighted. Unfortunately, the data was less positive. Building permits declined in January and housing starts stagnated extremely. The producer price index also fell into negative territory. Industrial production rose slightly in January, but expectations were higher. Falling long-term TIC investment shows a trend towards stagnating investment activity in the USA.
GB: Consumer price inflation was also published in the UK. As expected, this fell to 0.3% in January. However, there was an increase of 0.1% compared to the previous year. The country's producer price index fell very sharply in January, although an increase was actually expected. The job market was convincing in terms of the unemployment rate. This fell again by 0.1%. The important average earnings index also rose significantly in December. However, retail sales in January disappointed.
Japan: Japanese GDP growth performed well in the fourth quarter of 2014 - but still below expectations. On a positive note, it should be emphasized that there was still negative growth in the previous quarter. The trade balance was also pleasantly surprising. The deficit narrowed while exports increased significantly.
Monetary Policy: The FOMC protocol was published from the United States. This provides information on how members came to their decisions. The protocol did not reveal anything new, rather it reaffirmed the patient attitude towards the rate hike. The ECB has also published its minutes. There were also no changes to the program announced in January.
Technical assessment of the markets:
EUR / USD: The currency pair EUR / USD always fluctuates still within the range, although the trend appears to be downward. However, the strong EU stock markets and weak economic data from the USA still support the euro. A medium-term positioning is therefore not yet recommended.
GBP / USD: The situation is somewhat different in the British pound. The pound clearly bottomed out against the US dollar and broke up on the downtrend. Positive labor market data supported the pound. Technically speaking, the currency pair tested the resistance area at just under $ 1.55 a pound. A second attempt is likely. If the second test does not result in a sustained break in the resistance area, the price would be more likely to fall.
USD / JPY: The currency pair is still just above the 20s moving average and the consolidation triangle. Further downside potential only emerges at 117.50 yen per US dollar. Until then, there is a likelihood that the upward trend will continue. Market participants are waiting for confirmation from the BoJ.
DAX: The German leading index has tested the 11,000 points three times in the past two weeks. However, he did not get beyond 11,020 points. The reason is still the skirmish between Greece and the EU and the Ukraine crisis. On a somewhat shorter-term basis, there is still upside potential.
Gold: The precious metal has shown a brilliant downward trend in the past four weeks. The price is currently on a support. In the event of a sustainable break, a further fall in prices would be likely.
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