The third quarter has ended. From a market perspective, Q3 and Q2 were not very exhilarating. Developments in China's monetary policy have spread additional uncertainty in the markets in addition to the poor economy and the stagnating stock market. There was some data pending publication from the US and the EU this week. The most important are the inflation data for the EU and the labor market data from the USA, which are due on Friday. Despite better data from China, the markets did not make it to the top.
Economy and monetary policy
EU: The following data was published from the EU:
- Consumer price indices for Spain, Germany, Italy and the EU
- Purchasing manager indices for Spain, Italy, France, Germany, EU, Great Britain
- Retail sales for Germany and Spain
- Unemployment rates for Germany and the EU
- GDP growth for Great Britain
The CPIs for the month of September and compared to the previous month have declined in all countries, Germany saw no change compared to the previous year; the EU a declining rate of -0.1%; Italy's rate grew 0.3% as expected. The Spanish rate had also declined significantly.
The purchasing manager indices in Spain, Italy and Germany were negative. The EU remained unchanged. France's manufacturing index was exceptionally positive in September. However, the UK Purchasing Managers' Index was significantly better than expected compared to the previous month.
Retail sales in Spain fell more than expected in August. Retail sales in Germany were also negative in August.
Germany's unemployment rate remained at 6.4% in September, while the EU rose 0.1%.
GDP growth Great Britain's 2.4% in the second quarter was somewhat weaker compared to the previous year. The expectations of 2.6 could not be met either. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP grew as expected by 0.7% and was therefore at the same level as in Q1.
USA: The following data was published from the USA:
- PCE price index and private spending
- CB consumer confidence and pending home sales
- ADN non-farm jobs as well as the non-farm payslips, AQ
- Chicago purchasing manager index and ISM Purchasing Manager Index
The data from the United States were few and far between, but not irrelevant. The Fed's PCE price index showed unchanged August prices compared to the previous month. Prices rose compared to the previous year. Private spending also increased in August. Pending home sales fell sharply in August and were below expectations. CB consumer confidence, however, rose significantly in September. ADN non-farm jobs were above expectations, but the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for September was not convincing. The ISM purchasing manager index was also below expectations.
The non-farm payroll is expected to be positive with 200,000 new jobs after 174,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 5.1%.
The Fed has not initiated the interest rate turnaround, but Janet Yellen has reiterated in a speech that the rate hike should come later this year. Some Fed members had their say this week, but only a few counter positions were expected, so no major impact on the markets. Since the ECB already adjusted its inflation forecasts last month, the declining CPI has not yet shown any effects on the expansionary course of the ECB.
TECHNICAL EVALUATION OF THE MARKETS:
DAX: The DAX is still close to the long-term uptrend line. Chinese data helped him this week. However, everything is waiting for today's US labor market data. Technically speaking, a breakthrough through the short-term downtrend line could create new upside potential. Falling down presents an increased risk of a long-term correction, except for false breakouts.
EUR / USD: We have a similar picture in EUR / USD. Here, the short-term downtrend line also represents a relevant resistance. If there is an upward breakout, the $ 1.145 per euro could be triggered again, above that the $ 1.17 per euro. On the downside, the euro is supported in the $ 1.105 area. Below that, the longer-term upward trend line is on the agenda.
WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil has recently stabilized somewhat. However, no strength could be built up beyond a short squeeze. A break above $ 47 a barrel could initiate further upward pressure. Thereafter, the resistance zone at $ 53 a barrel would come into question. The area around $ 43 offers support downwards.
Federal bond: The Bund future represents trading in the federal bond. The price has been on an upward trend again for some time. In the short term, further upside potential could arise. The channel boundaries should initially act as possible resistance and support zones. A breakdown would jeopardize the upward trend.
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