The negative US labor market data left some market participants baffled. Not only did the September data disappoint, the August data was also revised down sharply, which is unusual. The markets reacted promptly, with the euro and equity markets trending stronger this week. But the raw materials sector was also able to partially recover. Commodity-dependent currency pairs such as AUD / USD and NZD / USD rose accordingly. Oil (WTI) rose back to around $ 50, and the USD / CAD currency pair also fell. In terms of economic and data technology, the week with the quarterly reports and the service manager indices did not have much to offer.
Economy and monetary policy
EU: The EU became the following data published:
- purchasing manager indices for the service sector from the countries Germany, EU, GB and France
- German work orders, trade balance and industrial production
- EU: retail sales
- GB: House price index, trade balance, industrial production and production in manufacturing
The purchasing manager indices for the service sector for September in the countries mentioned - with the exception of France - fell short of expectations, In contrast, the ISM purchasing manager index for the EU rose in September.
German work orders have clearly disappointed. August data show a 1.8% decrease. An increase of 0.5% was expected. The trade balance also fell more than expected in August. Industrial production also declined significantly in August. A slight increase was also expected here.
European retail sales did not rise in August and were therefore already above expectations.
The UK saw a halifax decline compared to the previous month and the previous year House price index in the real estate industry. In contrast, industrial production rose in both cases. Production in the manufacturing sector was also quite positive and exceeded expectations. The trade balance will be released on Friday. A slight reduction in the deficit is expected in August.
USA: The following data has been published from the USA:
- ISM Purchasing Manager Index Services and Purchasing Manager Index for Services
- Applications for unemployment benefits
- Trade balance
The ISM purchasing manager index for the service sector fell below expectations in September and was falling. The same applies to the purchasing manager index for services. The trade deficit widened further in August and was below expectations. The number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits was less than expected and therefore positive.
Some Fed members and the ECB came from the most important countries in the USA and EU President Draghi to speak. However, the speeches did not result in new decisions. The FOMC minutes from the last important meeting and the ECB's monthly report also failed to provide any impetus. The Fed's expectations of a continued loose monetary policy are also increasing. An interest rate hike this year is currently being priced out.
TECHNICAL EVALUATION OF THE MARKETS:
DAX: The DAX is trying to reverse and has its first important resistance of 10,000 pts slightly exceeded. Now he has to do it clearly to show that the demand is really there. The next resistance is in the range at 10,500 points.
EUR / USD: EUR / USD has also exceeded its medium-term downward trend, albeit cautiously. The next resistance is in the range of $ 1.14-1.1460 per euro. If this range is exceeded, the range at $ 1.1650-1.14 per euro will be on the agenda.
WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil continued to show strength and rose slightly above 50 US Dollars a barrel. A further rise to $ 55 a barrel is likely. After that, it will show whether the last high at $ 63 a barrel is the next target or not. The price could - if it moves within the marked upward range - take a little longer.
S&P 500: After the strong dynamic rise, the US leading index is no less strong resistance area around 2,020 pts. And the next resistance would also not be far away, namely in a range between 2,050-2,070 pts. This is where the long-term uptrend line and the 200 moving average converge. Only then will it become clear whether this is just a recovery in the bear trend or whether the upward trend can be resumed.
Gold: Finally, a look at the gold price. This has fluctuated in a tapering triangle since the last rise, which is in itself a consolidation pattern in an existing trend, and the overarching trend is downward. However, if the triangle were broken upwards, it could lead to a dynamic increase. The next resistances are in the areas of the horizontal lines.
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