The first day of trading after Pentecost weekend turned out to be a flop for the stock markets, while the euro continued to crash and plunged below the $ 1.10 per euro mark, this fact could not support the indices as it did in the recent past has been many times. Analysts blame the negotiations for Greece on the one hand, but also the outcome of the elections in Spain, where the left is getting more and more votes.
The next day, Tsipra's statement that almost an agreement was reached be cause an increase in stocks. However, there was still a lack of catalysts, which meant that the indices once again trended weakly on Thursday. US stocks also seem to have no less of an influence here.
Economy and monetary policy
EU: The following data has been published from the EU
The GfK consumer climate index for Germany, GDP for Spain and Great Britain, and consumer confidence for the EU zone. In addition, retail sales for Germany and the consumer price index for Spain.
The GfK consumer climate index rose to 10.2 points in June from 10.1 in the previous month. Spanish GDP was convincing and, as expected, rose by 0.9% compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the previous year, there was an increase of 2.7% after 2.6% in the previous year. A value of 2.6% was expected.
Consumer confidence in the EU fell to -6 in May from -4.6 in the previous month. German retail sales will be released on Friday. After a negative value of -2.3% in the previous month, an increase of 0.8% is expected. A year-on-year increase of 2.5% to 3.5% is expected.
Consumer prices from Spain will also be published on Friday. Slower growth is expected compared to the previous month, but also lower negative growth compared to the previous year.
GDP growth in the UK decreased both compared to the previous quarter and to the previous year.
USA: The following data were published from the USA:
(core) consumer goods for April, purchasing manager index for the service sector per month in May and sales of new homes. Pending home sales in April and unemployment claims. US GDP for the first quarter.
Durable consumer goods orders were worse than expected in April, but key core durable goods orders grew better than expected with an increase. The purchasing manager index for the service sector fell in May. Meanwhile, CB consumer confidence and new home sales were positive. Pending home sales also increased significantly in April.
The revision of US GDP growth for the first quarter will be released on Friday. A decline of 0.8% is expected.
After the ECB announced last week that the QE program would expand during the summer months Janet Yellen also spoke at the end of the week. It confirmed the Fed's monetary policy stance. No other important decisions by the most important central banks were made this week.
Technical assessment of the markets:
EUR / USD: The currency pair has the 1, It is significantly below US $ 10 per euro and is currently trying to retest on a daily basis. From a technical perspective, it is not possible to say exactly whether the retest can be carried out. At the very least, the zone should bring about 1.10 US dollars in new euro sales.
DAX: The leading German index does not come off after breaking the bullish flag upwards Has. The next relevant support is at 11,500 pts, while resistance is in a price zone of 12,000 pts. Again, it is not really clear which path the DAX will ultimately choose. Probably upwards, however, since the DAX future remains fairly stable despite the lack of agreement with Greece.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 does not disappoint and retains its volatile phase in which it has been at. Every new high is immediately sold off, while on a weak day it is almost always possible to find new buyers. Only a clear break in the upper triangular resistance could fuel new hopes for a stable trend. On the other hand, however, a drop to the lower support is also possible.
Copper: Today a raw material in the analysis, which has undergone an interesting upward trend in the past two months. This trend is currently at risk because the course is testing relevant support. Should the copper price fall below this, there would possibly be an opportunity for trading using a put option. A retest of the outbreak could be considered an entry. On the other hand, a rising price would point to confirmation of the trend.
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