Economy and Monetary Policy
EU: This week once again the ZEW economic expectations published for Germany and the EU. The expectations for Germany were positive, but significantly less than the consensus. The expectations for the EU zone were more convincing. They were significantly better than the consensus.
In addition, consumer prices for the EU were also published in February. Compared to the previous month, prices were still declining, an increase was expected. Compared to the same month last year, prices rose by 0.6%, which is positive. The January trade balance in the EU was worse than expected. The balance fell significantly. This Friday morning, the German producer prices were on the list of publications. Producer prices rose compared to the previous month, while they were still falling compared to the same month last year.
USA: US industrial production grew in February, but not as expected. Building permits from the real estate sector rose significantly in February, while housing starts stagnated. The U.S. current account showed a widening deficit in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, and weekly unemployment claims declined slightly. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index indicator was stagnant.
UK: Data from the UK was sporadic. The publications of the average earnings index and the unemployment rate were important. The index fell surprisingly as an increase was expected, while the unemployment rate remained at 5.7% in January.
CHF: Switzerland released retail sales, producer prices and this week Trade balance. The retail sector therefore developed negatively in January. Producer prices also fell significantly in February and compared to the previous month. The trade balance fell more than expected in February.
Monetary Policy: The key question for investors this week was: "Will the Fed announce the rate hike?" The Fed has not announced the rate hike. Instead, it avoided the word "patient", but at the same time made it clear to investors that an interest rate hike does not necessarily have to take place in June. This was also indicated by the projections of the individual Fed members. The effects of this decision were immediately priced into the courses. The euro rose by more than 3%, but fell sharply shortly afterwards.
Technical assessment of the markets:
EUR / USD: The currency pair EUR / USD has found support in the range of $ 1.046 per euro. This also coincides with the lower trend channel limit. Shortly after the Fed decision, the euro rose to around 1.1040 against the US dollar, which is the upper limit of the trend channel. The currency pair slumped again shortly afterwards. The question is how to proceed now. The currency pair is currently quoted at a crucial point, namely $ 1,076 per euro. This listing reflects the starting rate before the Fed decision. If the current price sinks towards $ 1.04 per euro, there is a chance that the downtrend will continue.
DAX: On a daily basis, the DAX is still doing well despite falling prices figure. Technically, the upward trend is still intact, unless at least the 10s and 20s moving average have been broken down. It remains to be seen whether the rally will continue or a correction will come shortly and also depends somewhat on the EUR / USD exchange rate. If the upward trend is still fully intact, the trading direction should be completely clear.
Gold: The gold price cannot really be decided, since the steep downward trend was also due to the short-term euro Revaluation relativized. Here, too, everything depends on the further development in EUR / USD. Technically, above $ 1180 an ounce, there is a chance of further growth. Below $ 1,140 an ounce there would be further downside potential towards $ 1,030 an ounce.
Silver: The precious and industrial metal silver looks a little more interesting because the downtrend has become already overcome. There is still resistance at $ 16.50 an ounce on the way up, but the chart looks promising. The correlation to the gold price should still be considered.