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KW 14: Messages, review and outlook for the trade

While the leading US indices tend to move sideways or down, the DAX launched an attack on the all-time high despite less economic stimulus.

The week before Easter is accompanied by volatile phases in the markets. Some important economic data were published, but consequent trends could not arise. The leading German index, the DAX, is one of the few equity indices that has attempted the recent highs, but was stopped early. The American indices were more volatile, but tended to go down. The beginning of the quarter could not provide any lasting impulses in the stock markets or currencies, however in the metals gold and silver.

Economy and monetary policy

EU: The EU stood out this week the following data to

  • consumer price indices from Spain, Italy, Germany and the EU. The Spanish index declined in March, the German index also as assumed and the European index fell 0.1%, which was also expected. The core CPI for the EU rose by 0.6%, unchanged from the previous month. The CPI for Italy rose slightly as expected.
  • German retail sales, German unemployment rate, EU unemployment rate: Retail sales in Germany fell in February, but less than expected. The unemployment rate fell to 11.3%, but was expected to reach 11.2%. The German unemployment rate, on the other hand, was better than expected at 6.4% (6.5%).
  • ISM purchasing manager indices for the manufacturing sector in Germany, Italy, EU, Spain, UK: The index was positive for Germany, EU, UK and Italy. The index also rose in Spain, although somewhat less than expected.

USA: The following data was published from the USA

  • PCE price index as well as private spending and income for February. This data is very positive.
  • Homes in February, CB consumer confidence in March, ADP non-farm jobs and the ISM purchasing manager index for March: Homes and CB consumer confidence rose significantly, while the newly created ADP Non-farm jobs showed a negative development. The ISM index for manufacturing was surprisingly negative.

Monetary policy: No relevant decisions on the agenda

KW 14: Messages, review and outlook for the trade

Technical assessment of the markets:

EUR / USD: The currency pair fell significantly this week. The area around 1.10 euros per US dollar could not be overcome sustainably. The currency pair fell below the 20s moving average and is currently pulling back on a 12-hour basis. According to the technical definition of a pullback, the currency pair should tend to continue falling. A renewed overshoot puts the statement into perspective.

DAX: The leading German index broke out of the consolidation triangle and gave way again a short time later. The index opened yesterday morning with a down-gap, but in the course of the positive ISM purchasing manager indices it rose just below the high of the day before yesterday before falling again here. Market technology clearly shows that there is uncertainty about the further course. Although the technical outlook can still be classified as bullish on a medium-term basis, a break-out below 11,600 points could trigger a major correction if one considers a top formation.

Gold: One look on gold clearly shows the uncertainty in the other markets. The precious metal has returned from its upward movement to $ 1220 an ounce. The price is currently rising again: a push towards $ 1240 an ounce and then possibly to $ 1280 per euro.

Silver: We also looked at silver a few weeks ago. Technically speaking, the industrial and precious metal almost follows the gold price. Breaking out of the triangle could create an interesting trading opportunity. The next resistance would then be in the range of $ 18.30 an ounce.

NZD / USD: An interesting setup is emerging in the currency pair NZD / USD. A SKS formation combined with a break-out from the triangle and a pullback that overshooted downwards, but was stopped by the 20s moving average. A further increase could indicate a reversal in the large downward trend. It will only be certain, however, if the $ 0.7800 per NZD has been overcome.

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