And so the interest rate remains between 0 and 0, 25%, as it had been since the height of the global financial crisis in 2008. "The economic conditions do not yet warrant an increase," said Janet Yellen in Washington on Wednesday. For this reason, many experts do not expect interest rates to rise until September of this year or possibly not until the end of the year.
Economy and monetary policy
EU: The following data has been published from the EU
On Tuesday morning, ZEW economic expectations were published for both Germany and the EU as a whole. The ZEW indicator for both Germany and the EU fell short of expectations at 62.9 and 53.7%, respectively. UK unemployment figures were released on Wednesday. With 6,500 unemployed, these were much less bad. Experts estimated 12,300 fewer unemployed here. However, the EU consumer price index of 0.3% was exactly as expected. The UK's core retail sales figures were on the program on Thursday, as were retail sales. These figures were as expected or somewhat more positive than expected, so that these figures had no impact on the markets.
USA: The following data was published from the USA:
US industrial production fell from -0.5% in the previous month to -0.2%. An increase to 0.3% was expected here. On Tuesday, the Federal Statistical Office informed that the number of US building permits rose from 1.140M in the previous month to seasonally adjusted 1.275M. The U.S. Department of Energy Statistics (EIA) also reported that U.S. crude oil inventories fell from -6.812M in the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -2.676M. Unemployment claims fell from 279,000 the previous week to a seasonally adjusted annual rate to 267,000. Analysts had expected US jobless claims to drop to 275,000 last week.
Monetary Policy: As described in the section above, the Federal Reserve rate remains between 0 and 0, 25%. The SNB also kept the interest rate at -0.75%, so there is not much new to report from a monetary policy perspective.
Technical assessment of the markets:
DAX: The price of the DAX was repeatedly based on the 50s Fibonacci retracement of the last upward movement at a good 10,800 points. Here the courses were bought up again and again, which confirms the relevance of this brand. On the upside, however, it shows that the falling trend line continues and investors should be prepared for further falling prices. In addition, corrections very rarely end at the 50s Fibo retracement. The 38 Fibo retreacement for smaller corrections and the 62 Fibo retracement for healthy corrections are more common. As long as no solution to the Greek crisis is found, I do not expect a recovery in the Dax, but rather the trend continuation of the medium-term downward trend.
EUR / USD: In the currency pair EUR / USD appears to be building a medium-term uptrend. It remains to be seen whether this is a trend reversal or just a technical recovery of the downward trend. At the moment, the price only seems to have corrected the medium-term upward movement, so that the 62 Fibonacci retracement continued the trend. It remains to be seen whether the price will break out or whether it will hold the 1.14439 mark.
S & P500: The S&P has been oscillating in a narrow sideways range since the beginning of the year, The longer such a phase lasts, the greater the likelihood of erroneous outbreaks as investors gradually become restless. Such a fake outbreak occurred in mid-May, but the follow-up purchases failed to materialize and the price fell back into its range. A new attempt to break out was made yesterday, which certainly had something to do with the speech by FED chair Yellen. Accordingly, it will have to be shown whether the outbreak is sustainable or whether it was just a flash in the pan due to the statement. Political stock exchanges often have short legs....
You may also be interested in the important news from the following weeks:
- KW 27 - Review and outlook for retail
- KW 29 - Review and outlook for retail