The last week of January 2015 brought some new insights into the markets at both the economic and monetary level. This week one could particularly observe that politics also has a significant influence on the courses. The elections in Greece and the behavior of the new government regarding negotiations on austerity policies made investors uncertain, which led to falling bond and share prices.
Economy and monetary policy
EU: The amount of data for the entire EU was limited, but some publications from Germany were on the agenda. These included above all the leading indicators for the GRP consumer climate for February and the Ifo business climate index. Both had very positive values. The German unemployment rate was also convincing due to the fall from 6.5% to 6.4%, which was expected. Nevertheless, the changes in the falling unemployment rate were only minor. Retail sales also increased in December, but less than expected. Consumer prices were still important this week. Germany had a negative inflation rate of -0.3% compared to the same month last year for the first time since 2009. The monthly rate even fell to -1%. Core inflation remained positive.
USA: The main US data released this week was consumer staples orders. These data provide a preview of Q4 GDP growth that will be released this Friday. The orders disappointed across the board. Orders for core consumer goods also declined, although growth was expected. Leading indicators such as CB consumer confidence were positive, however. The real estate industry was divided. Apartment sales rose sharply in December, while pending home sales tended to stagnate.
Japan: Japan was able to surprise with a positive trade balance. Exports have risen sharply, imports only slightly. The unemployment rate also fell slightly from 3.5% to 3.4%. Industrial production also appears to be recovering, increasing by 1% in December 2014.
GB: The UK was unfortunately unable to convince with GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2014. Growth stagnated by 0.5%. However, GDP growth rose 2.7% year over year.
Monetary Policy: The FOMC met this week. Little new was decided, which was also expected. The Fed reaffirmed that it wants to be patient with the rate hike. The key meeting will be in March. Then the Fed will have to announce if it wants to prepare market participants for a rate hike in June.
In the UK, the two advocates of faster rate hikes have passed within the committee, and a Carney statement said the British pound devalued without further ado. Carney said the timing of an interest rate hike should be determined based on the oil price.
Technical valuation of the markets:
EUR / USD: The currency pair EUR / USD initially fell to $ 1.1096 per euro after last week's ECB decision. Since then, the currency pair has been recovering and is currently trading at $ 1.1333 per euro. A sustained rise above the level of 1.15 U $ / € is unlikely. The 20s moving average on a daily basis should be seen as the next relevant resistance if the correction continues.
GBP / USD: The British pound has recovered dynamically in recent days. However, the 20s moving average also served as a technical resistance in the GBP / USD currency pair and there was a sell-off in the range of $ 1.50 per British pound, where the currency pair is currently also quoted. The downward trend is likely to continue. The next support would be US $ 1.48 per British pound.
DAX: The leading German index was able to maintain its strength despite unrest in Greek politics, albeit initially at first. Last week's high at 10,850 (FDAX) should be headed again. Furthermore, further upside potential can be seen. There is also no RSI divergence that a technical-based reversal would advocate.
Gold: Gold has recovered to $ 1,300 an ounce in the past two weeks, and has stagnated since then however again. The troy ounce currently costs $ 1,262. A further increase can still be expected if the 5-moving average can hold on a weekly basis as support. Below that, the 20s moving average is the next support. The upward trend should continue to establish itself from the range of $ 1,300 per troy ounce.
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