On December 21st at 6 p.m. Stefan Salomon, together with the participants in the webinar "The Trading Sessions - Year in Review and Outlook" at GKFX, takes a look at the past year and dares to look into the future, The many events in 2017 also left their mark on the financial markets. Political events were important above all. Donald Trump was elected US President over a year ago and has been making headlines ever since. There were also elections in various European countries and the ongoing Brexit discussions dominated the debates.
Forecasts for 2018
In addition, 2017 was the year of Bitcoin, which was able to increase its value by more than 14 times. For many observers, however, it is only a matter of time before the perhaps largest bubble of all time bursts. In "The Trading Sessions - Annual Review and Outlook", Stefan Salomon takes a close look at Bitcoin. In addition to the highs and lows of 2017, there are forecasts for the DAX, the Dow, gold and individual currency pairs for the coming year in this webinar.
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Donald Trump in the headlines
Since Donald Trump was sworn in on January 20, 2017, his name has appeared in the headlines almost every day. A big topic is still the question what role Russia played in the election campaign. In May, former FBI director Robert Mueller was appointed special investigator to investigate this question. Meanwhile, Mueller has indicted Paul Manaford, Donald Trump's former campaign manager, and Michael Flynn, Trump's former security advisor.
Discussions about Trump
On June 1, Donald caused great excitement Trump's announcement to step out of the Paris climate deal. In addition, the topic North Korea always plays a role. While the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un provokes with missile tests, Donald Trump worries with words. In August, for example, he announced that he wanted to keep North Korea at bay with "fire and fury".
One of the largest domestic political discussions about Donald Trump followed after his reaction the racist riots in Charlottesville in which a woman died. In the eyes of many, Donald Trump did not distance himself far enough from the incidents, but downplayed them. After that, among other things, several American CEOs resigned from an advisory board, which was subsequently dissolved.
In the USA, the attack on October 1 was also part of a country festival in Las Vegas 59 deaths for a big shock.
Profit from movements in currency
Federal President election and NRW election
In this country, the political year in February took the election of Frank-Walter Steinmeier as Federal President Ride on. In May there was a change of power in North Rhine-Westphalia after the SPD had lost significantly in the state elections. This was also a major setback for Martin Schulz in the struggle for the Chancellery.
Bundestag election in September
The CDU was also, as expected, in the Bundestag election on September 24 clearly ahead, but also had to accept significant losses. The strong result of the right-wing populist AfD caused a great shock at around 13 percent. This is the first right-wing party in the Bundestag for the first time in decades. As a result, many asked themselves how to deal with right-wing populists in the Bundestag. At the constituent session of the Bundestag , the AfD candidate for the office of deputy Bundestag president failed in all three ballots by. Albrecht Glaser came up with statements about Islam in the spring of 2017, which he considers not an religion but an ideology. This makes him intolerable for the representatives of other parties as deputy Bundestag president.
No government coalition yet
No government has yet been found in Germany. The SPD announced on election evening that it would no longer be available for a grand coalition. Then the CDU, CSU, FDP and the Greens exploratory talks with the aim of forming a Jamaica coalition. But in the four-week talks it became clear that the trenches are large on numerous questions such as how to deal with family reunification among refugees. Ultimately the FDP surprisingly broke off negotiations.
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Avoid new elections
Now all parties want to avoid new elections. However, many representatives of the SPD are still against a grand coalition. Nevertheless, it was agreed to enter into open-ended discussions with the CDU and the CSU. However, these will certainly not pick up speed until January. A government will therefore drag on for a while. It is also currently being discussed whether the result must indeed be a grand coalition as before. In addition to a minority government, the SPD is also discussing new forms of a coalition, for example a so-called cooperation coalition , in which not all issues are defined in advance in a coalition agreement, but those involved would have to look for new majorities in the Bundestag again and again.
Elections in France, the Netherlands and Austria
This year, it was not only in Germany that citizens were Choice called. In May, Emmanuel Macron prevailed in the runoff election against Marine Le Pen from the right-wing populist Front National in the French presidential election. Financial markets across Europe reacted with relief. Macron is considered liberal and pro-European. In the past few months he has repeatedly attracted attention with proposals for reforms in Europe such as the installation of a European finance minister.
In In March the incumbent Mark Rutte won the election in the Netherlands again. Although Geert Wilders' right-wing populist party for freedom ended in second place, it was not involved in the formation of the government. In Austria, on the other hand, the new Chancellor Sebastian Kurz from the Austrian People's Party entered into a coalition with the right-wing populist FPÖ around Heinz-Christian Strache.
New elections in Great Britain
Surprisingly new elections took place in Great Britain in June . Prime Minister Theresa May wanted to strengthen her negotiating position in the Brexit negotiations. However, it lost the absolute majority and was forced to form a minority government tolerating the strictly conservative Democratic Unionist Party from Northern Ireland. The Brexit negotiations will continue to accompany the new year. So far, the outcome is still open.
Again and again terrorist attacks
Unfortunately, we had to cope with news of terrorist attacks again and again this year. Great Britain was particularly hard hit. First, five people were killed in a attack near Parliament in London and on Westminster Bridge in March. About two months later, a attack on a concert by singer Ariana Grande in Manchester was carried out, in which 22 people died and nearly 120 were injured. Many children and adolescents were also victims. Shortly afterwards, another attack on the London Brigde and in Borough Market, known as the nightlife district, killed eight people in Great Britain. A few days later, a man drove a van into a group of Muslims. There was one death and several injuries.
Terror and conflict in Barcelona
Barcelona was hit by a terrorist attack on 17 August. When a van drove into a crowd on the Las Ramblas promenade, 13 people died. More than 100 people were injured. Catalonia was also one of the most important topics in Europe in autumn. In an extremely controversial referendum on independence, over 90 percent of the Catalans voted to separate from Spain. However, only around 40 percent took part in the referendum that the government in Madrid had tried to prevent by all means to the end. On the day of the election there were also violent clashes between Catalan demonstrators and Spanish police officers. It is said that up to 800 people were injured. The conflict worsens as a result. Among other things, the then Catalan Prime Minister Carles Puigdemont, who later fled to Brussels, formally proclaimed the independence of Catalonia. The government in Madrid ultimately dissolved the Catalan regional government and launched new elections.
Excitement surrounding the G20 and diesel
In June, the 20 most important heads of state and government in the world met in Hamburg for the G20 summit. The meeting was accompanied by massive riots. In Germany, the diesel scandal about manipulated software for exhaust gas values is causing excitement. The manufacturers agreed to upgrade the affected cars with a software update.
Political uncertainties also in 2018
Next year political uncertainties will probably come again. Among other things, government formation in Germany will continue. Nevertheless, many experts are currently assuming that strong economic growth in Germany and the eurozone will continue. The global economy is also solid. Inflation will increase in many countries, but will still not reach the ECB and Fed's two percent target.
ECB and Fed decisions
Von Unaffected by low inflation, the Fed will likely raise interest rates several times next year. The ECB is currently not anticipating an increase in key interest rates. It remains to be seen how the ECB will decide on its bond purchase program. Although the monthly volume will be reduced, bond purchases should continue at least until September. The situation in the United States will also depend on Donald Trump's further tax and trade policy.
On December 21 at 6:00 p.m. Stefan Salomon looks on GKFX in "The Trading Sessions - Annual Review and Outlook" goes back to the end of the year and dares a forecast for the new year. Political events in particular have left their mark on the financial markets this year. 2017 was also the year of bitcoin. Salomon analyzes, among other things, the Bitcoin, the DAX and selected currency pairs.
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