On January 2, 2018 at 8.45 a.m. the new trading year starts at GKFX with the webinar "Trading in the morning - The GKFX live webinar on the current market situation" with Stefan Salomon. The experienced speaker takes a look at the current market situation at the beginning of the new year and shows the opportunities and risks of trading day. The topics range from indices to forex to equity CFDs. This keeps an eye on the entire range of financial instruments. The webinar also includes a look at the economic and political events of the day. On the same day, Kornelius Barczynski starts the new trading year with "US SESSION - Live Trading" at the opening of the US markets at 3.30 p.m.
Start of the trading year
For many people, the holidays go on At the turn of the year, trade and work started again on January 2, 2018. Often in the first days of January the course is set for the new year. In this context, one speaks of the "January effect" on the stock exchange. Exchange rates related to the year are particularly well known in the United States. Similar to the phrase "Sell in May and go away", the January effect describes a seasonal phenomenon. The phrase "As goes January, so goes the year" is often heard on the US stock exchanges in January. The term January effect is used somewhat differently in Germany.
Course recovery in January
The January effect is based on a thesis by the American economist Donald Kiem from the university in Chicago in 1980. He said that especially stocks that fell sharply in the past year can achieve significant price gains at the beginning of a new year. However, this is no longer perceived today. However, investors still see a broad recovery at the beginning of the year. In this context, the January effect means that some stocks often achieve very high returns in January.
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This is also due to the fact that many investors reorganize their investments at the beginning of the year. They often also decide to invest in new investments or financial instruments. On the first few days of January there is a lively atmosphere of optimism on many stock exchanges. However, the second trading day in the new year actually still belongs to the Christmas rally. Afterwards it can often be observed in the USA that the Dow Jones initially stagnates. Only at the end of January will the US standard values rise again.
Statistics on profits and losses in January
One often hears the sentence that in January the The course is set for the entire stock market year. In January, investors often pay particular attention to the price trend and try to use it to derive how the year is going. Anyone who follows this assumption relies on statistical evidence. According to market expert Robert Rethfeld from Wellenreiter Invest, there is a statistical probability of 83 percent that a good year is imminent if the Dow Jones Index performs well in January.
Dow Jones Index in January in minus
In years in which the Dow Jones closed the first month of the year with a clear minus of more than four percent, the statistical probability is that too the year is going badly, at 80 percent. If the minus in January is less than four percent, the year is only bad with a statistical probability of 63 percent. But exceptions confirm the rule: In 2014, the Dow Jones index closed in January at a minus of 5.3 percent. However, the year was successful with an increase of 7.5 percent in the end.
Separate from unprofitable stocks
Experts keep trying to explain these statistical figures To find theses. One attempt to explain this is the so-called tax-loss-selling hypothesis, which is related to tax-related decisions by investors. At the end of the year, many investors sold shares that did not perform as well as hoped. In this case, you have to accept losses, but these are offset against profits. This reduces the tax burden. Many investors then reinvest their money at the beginning of the year.
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Reorganize at the beginning of the year
The beginning of the year is also a good time for traders to reposition themselves. Investors often reorganize their portfolio during this time of the year. In addition, the turn of the year is ideal for thinking about personal goals and possibly adapting your own trading strategy accordingly. You can see again what you want to achieve with trading. So what are the personal goals that you are pursuing with trading? At best, goals are clearly defined and measurable. So at the end of the year you can check exactly whether you have reached your goals. If this is not the case, you can adjust your goals at the beginning of a new year.
Good start to the new year
The start of the year 2018 could be very good. Mostly in December, many experts announce their prospects for the new year. For 2018, many expect the economy to continue well. The DAX is also said to have a good year. After the leading index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange reached 13,400 points for the first time in early November, it is assumed that the DAX level will remain high. A good year is also expected for the MDAX and the TecDAX, which repeatedly set records.
In 2018, we are also facing a year full of political uncertainties, including with regard to the formation of a government in Germany, the further decisions of US President Donald Trump and the further Brexit negotiations. So far, the financial markets have been largely stable and were able to recover after a short time in the event of surprising events last year.
Rising interest rates in the US are expected
Currently Many experts assume that interest rates in the US will continue to rise rapidly. The Fed could raise rates three to four times. The ECB, on the other hand, will probably not seek to raise interest rates. Nevertheless, the euro could gain next year as the political and economic risks in Europe are estimated to be quite low. The reduction in bond purchases by the ECB could also benefit the euro.
The global economy is likely to continue to grow in 2018. Inflation expectations may also rise, even if the ECB and Fed's two percent target is far from being reached. It remains to be seen how the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, which experienced an unexpectedly strong upswing this year, will continue. Many experts are currently saying that Bitcoin is the biggest bubble of all time that will soon burst.
With GKFX through 2018
In the new year, GKFX will again present webinars on various topics several times a week. The broker always deals with current issues. There are also live trading sessions, extensive training materials and seminars on site. Beginners and advanced users are always up-to-date about trading in 2018 and can continue their targeted training.
The trading year at GKFX starts on the 2nd January at 8:45 am with "morning trading". Stefan Salomon will once again take a look at the opportunities and risks of the day and comment on the economic and political events of the day. On the same day there is also a live trading session in the US markets.
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