The leading German index DAX has achieved a performance of just over 30% since the beginning of the year. Since then he has been in a consolidation phase and has corrected about 6-7%. The question that many traders are now asking is: is the correction over or are the 11,000 points still to be reached?
No one can say that one hundred percent, but the market technology speaks a clear language: According to this, the investors Not quite sure at the moment, although they were somewhat more optimistic towards the end of last week.
The relevant resistance for the DAX future lies in a range between 11,600-11,700 points. This area could not be overcome three times in a row. So two contradictory statements that do not help the trader. Are investors now optimistic or not?
To get to the bottom of this question, it is advisable to proceed step by step.
DAX analysis in several steps
- Step: Identification of strengths and weaknesses in the course
In the first step, it makes sense to look for strengths and weaknesses in the course. This procedure can be compared to a pro and contra list.
Points that speak for strengths in the DAX:
- The lower trend line has held twice as a support line
- The RSI indicator shows a positive trend
- A SKS formation indicates a bottom formation
Points that speak for weaknesses in the DAX:
- The upper resistance between 11,500-11,700 points has not been overcome three times in the past few weeks
- The RSI indicator also shows a slight negative trend
- SKS-like pattern from above
Now the above statement "Investors are not quite sure" makes sense.
- Step: What options are there?
In the second step, it is advisable to roughly present the possible processes.
- Possibility: The DAX overcomes the upper channel line and rises above 11,700. Point
- Possibility: The DAX does not overcome the resistance and falls to 11,000 Point
- Possibility: The DAX does not overcome the resistance, but does not fall below the lower trend line, but fluctuates in the approaching one Triangle and breaks up.
However, these steps only give the dealer an overview of the possible courses. Nevertheless, he is still faced with the decision of whether to buy or rather to sell.
The analysis follows the trade
We have just defined three probable scenarios. We now want to set up trading rules for each individual scenario.
- The DAX must overcome the upper trend line.
- Also the falling one RSI trend line should be overcome upwards.
- The purchase is only made after a retest of the upper trend line.
- The DAX has to cross the lower trend line.
- The rising RSI trend line should also be overcome downwards.
- The sale is done with a retest the lower trend line.
- The upper trend line must be overcome.
- The upper RSI resistance must be overcome.
- The purchase is made after a retest of the upper trend channel line.
The German one Leading index has been in a sideways trend for about a month. Both down and up, the forces seem to be in balance. The above illustration is a careful planning and possible approach to such market situations.
In this case, with one hundred percent certainty, no prognosis can be predicted if one only uses market technology. However, the upward forces tend to be somewhat stronger and should be supported with a stronger US dollar.
But regardless of personal tendency, it makes sense to do what at such times one sees. If the upper resistance is overcome, the strength can be clearly seen, whereupon trading can take place.
In this case, too, it becomes clear that trading has a lot to do with analysis and planning. Buying and selling is just one factor among many. This includes, for example, money and risk management, timing, planning the goals and a good deal of experience and intuition.
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