US market in wait-and-see stance
The year 2016 was not an easy one for the stock exchange traders. The stock exchanges were rather fickle and this seems to be repeating itself in the new year. After the share indices were able to temporarily generate new highs, there is now a wait-and-see attitude. This is confirmed by the monthly sentiment survey of the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors).
Bullish 31.6% (-5.4% on the previous month)
Neutral 34.9 (+4, 6% on the previous month)
Bearish 33.5% (+ 0.8% on the previous month)
The AAII conducts a survey every month. To do this, market participants have to provide a forecast for the next six months.
The result of the survey shows a clear reduction in the proportion of bulls. The majority of the former bulls have not moved to the bear camp. You are committed to neutrality and that is a wait-and-see attitude. The behavior is even understandable, since the US stock markets have had an impressive rally since November 2016. In most cases, this is followed by a fall in the share price.
In most cases, consolidation takes place in such a way that there is a short-term phase of the price reduction. But there is also a second variant. Namely, when the price hardly moves down. In this case, the consolidation phase takes significantly longer than with the first variant.
In the upper chart, two trend channels are drawn using pitchforks. Each Pitchfork forms a trend channel based on three striking price points. This has the advantage that the typical "trend channel arbitrariness" is reduced.
Both pitchforks point upwards and are nested inside each other at the same time. This is an important point because both of them are part of the uptrend and accelerate the course.
Even if the S & P500 shows weakness and a trend channel is broken. Then there is still the other. Under this condition, the price remains caught in the upward trend until further notice.
Trend analysis of the largest Dow Jones companies (Mighty Six)
Short-term = trend analysis of the past 40 daysMid-term = trend analysis of the past 40 weeks long-term = trend analysis of the past 40 months
In the table above, the largest companies of the Dow Jones Industrial are listed according to market capitalization. These companies are hugely important to assess the upside potential of the entire US stock market. It is immediately noticeable that none of the companies is in a downward trend.
In the table above, the trends from three different time frames are considered. Two of the companies show a marked upward trend, which should continue in the coming months. But the other companies also have sufficient upside potential to support the US stock market in the event of a weakness.
Is It Finally Time To Buy INTEL Stock? - (INTC Stock Analysis 2019)
Focus on Intel - buy shares?
Intel is the global leader in microprocessors, In the field of PC processors, Intel holds a market share of approximately 80%. However, this is far from all. Intel produces all types of chipsets, including graphics chips.
In the future, Intel would like to concentrate on technology trends. The goal is to produce product-specific processors and microchips that cannot be copied by the competition. For Intel, for example, autonomous driving or typical cloud services are in the focus. There is also the "Artificial Intelligence" division. After the semiconductor manufacturer completely slept through the smartphone and tablet boom years ago, Intel should not make another such mistake again. In area Artificial Intelligence, you want to be fully involved right from the start. Intel is researching intensively in this sector and at the same time the company portfolio is being upgraded with acquisitions.
Business figures of IntelIntel201220014201520162017Revenues533415270855870553555938759973 Figures in million US dollars / Figures for 2016 and 2017 are estimates Source: finanzen.net
Due to the continuing good demand for chips, Intel exceeded the latest expectations for the quarterly figures. There is strong competition in the traditional PC business, and yet Intel was able to record sales growth of more than 4%.
Intel's forecasts for 2017 are cautious. There is talk of a similar sales level as in 2016. That leaves room for some positive surprises.
The upward trend of the Intel share is stable
An important price level is 38 US Dollar. The stock has already opened three times to overcome the hurdle. The third attempt is still ongoing. Statistically, it is that most break attempts in the second resistance test have the highest probability of success. That would currently be the case. After overcoming resistance, the price should quickly move higher towards $ 40.
A stable trend is good for traders
The price patterns in 2016 have been compared adapted to previous years. Volatility has decreased, making the upward trend more consistent since February 2016. The trend strength can be measured with the ADX indicator, and it is 15 on a weekly basis. The value 15 is a limit, because trends only start after 15. That means the market is on the threshold of a major movement. As a risk-aware trader, however, one should consider the possibility that a downward wave would also be possible. Intel is moving in an uptrend - but it is not a guarantee that the upward trend will continue.
The current chart situation allows us to close the stop loss at $ 35.50 to be set. A small trend channel is shown within the upward trend. Roughly estimated, a trend would break around $ 36. New sales orders would then probably be triggered. The share could easily fall back to the next important support at $ 34.
Intel share: WKN: 855681 / ISIN: US4581401001 or US symbol INTC
target price: 40, - US $
stop loss: US $ 35.50
stopover: not applicable
if you If you want to benefit from the short-term share recommendation, you can buy the share directly or work with derivatives. Note that derivatives include leverage and therefore increase the profit and loss potential. In extreme cases, a total loss is even possible.
Stop loss: The stop loss is initially set as an initial stop and has the function of a maximum Loss limitation.
Price target: The price target is the exit point for the forecast market movement.
Interim target: When the intermediate target is reached, the position is in profit. At this point we take a partial profit and we sell 50% of our position. At the same time, the stop loss is adjusted to the personal entry price. This way we can close our position loss-free, even if the market later turns against us.
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