After an exciting trading week with the presidential elections in the USA, the DAX reached an interesting level of 7,163 points with a weekly drop of almost 3 percent. With only seven trading weeks remaining in 2012, we take a look at the coming weeks in the DAX and venture a technical market outlook on the development by the end of the year.
Quo vadis, DAX?
The German one The leading index has been in a sideways trend between 7,150 and 7,480 points since the beginning of September. So far, three attempts to break out towards the all-time high by 8,100 points have failed. The DAX is currently trading again at the lower limit of the sideways movement and is therefore at a crossroads.
The downward scenario
As can be seen in the chart, the overarching upward trend has been at least since the beginning of June has been damaged at short notice. A daily close below the current weekly low of 7,064 points (intraday low on Friday) could trigger a downward wave in the direction of 6,880 and subsequently in the direction of 6,350 points. From a technical point of view, the slightly higher trading volume in the context of the downward movement of the past few days supports this scenario.
The end-of-year rally
The timing speaks banally against the downward scenario, among other things. In the past 15 years, the DAX has mostly outperformed in the last two trading months of the year, i.e. it has seen price gains. From a technical point of view, it is positive that the DAX was able to gain a good 100 points from its intraday low on Friday midday at the close of trading (clearly visible in the last candle in the chart). In the bullish scenario, the DAX should first overcome 7,285 points and then move towards 7,480. In addition, a longer-term buy signal would be generated in the direction of 8,100.
Favorable risk-reward ratio
Whichever scenario you prefer - the DAX is at a very interesting point. For bullish investors speculating on a year-end rally, there is currently an entry-level opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio. There is a manageable risk when there is great upside potential. The bears have the theory of a statistically probable end-of-year rally against them, but are getting tailwind from the technical weakness in the DAX. Added to this is the overall situation in the euro zone, which is still characterized by uncertainty and weak economic data.
Binary Trading from $416 to $3716 | Based on Market Analysis & Impulse.
Speculating on the DAX with binary options
If you bet on rising prices, you can, among other things Invest in strong individual shares from the DAX or speculate directly on the price development of the DAX with the help of warrants or certificates. Binary options also offer an easy way to bet on rising or falling prices with a clearly defined risk. Although these often have very short terms, some brokers also offer longer terms until the end of the month, such as BDSwiss or anyoption.