In terms of economic data and monetary policy decisions, the week was relatively quiet, at least compared to last week. The impact of the last FOMC press conference is still weighing on the US dollar. The stock markets initially benefited from this, but towards the end of the quarter many investors seem to want to say goodbye to the stock markets, as they have been falling for three days in a row and recovered somewhat indecisively on Thursday.
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Economy and monetary policy
EU: Purchasing manager indices from the EU were on the agenda. Manufacturing indices were positive in March in both Germany and France. The EU zone also saw growth. The service index was negative only in France. The IFO business climate index and the GFK consumer climate were also convincing. GDP growth in France had hardly changed in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter.
USA: There was also little data in the USA. Existing home sales increased in February, but less than expected. However, the CPI index was better than expected. This brought some strength to the US dollar for a short time and weakness to the US indices. Apartment sales rose significantly in February. The Markit Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing was also positive. The service sector also saw an increase in the index. Unemployment claims have fallen more than expected.
UK: Britain had a current account deficit in January after a surplus compared to the same month last year. Consumer prices rose compared to the previous month, but stagnated compared to the previous year. Producer prices disappointed: Although they rose slightly compared to the previous month, they did so less than expected. In contrast, they stagnated very strongly compared to the previous year. However, retail sales were positive in February.
Monetary Policy: There were no new decisions on the part of monetary policy. Only a few Fed members had their say, such as Fisher. Since it was the first speech since the last Fed decision, it was carefully scrutinized by market participants. However, the speech had no strong effect on the markets.
Technical assessment of the markets:
DAX: After the leading German index in the first two days of the week fluctuated within the triangle and attempted to break out, but was unable to sustain it, he subsequently broke through among the important supports at 11,800 and 11,700 points. As so often, however, the slump was also unsustainable, albeit extremely dynamic, as more investments were made on Thursday. At this point in time, it is impossible to say whether the purchases are sustainable. The dynamic speaks for further purchases, but weakened significantly towards the close of trading. Breaking out of the triangle should continue to be monitored. Only then would there be opportunities for a further rise.
EUR / USD: As far as the EUR / USD currency pair was concerned, the downward trend was initially broken, but the currency pair fluctuated accordingly strong that there were no clear signs of a sustainable increase. Nevertheless, the currency pair rose to $ 1.10 per euro and is currently falling again. Given the volatility in the past few days, one could assume that the currency pair still has potential upwards. The 20s Moving Average currently serves as support. Should this be broken down, there would be further downside potential.
Gold: Gold has been appreciating in recent days and found resistance at the lower bound of the previous uptrend. A further increase on a technical basis can then be expected up to the range of $ 1,280 per ounce, provided that this lower limit is exceeded.
S&P 500: The US - The leading American index suffered more than the DAX this week. The index fell significantly three days in a row and only recovered slightly on Thursday. The US session today will show whether this recovery can continue. At the moment, however, it does not look like this, as momentum is slowly fading and the strong US dollar seems to be putting additional pressure on the index. In addition, the quarterly season is coming up next week, which could cause investors concerns due to the strong US dollar. Technically speaking, the index is within the large range. The enormous fluctuation range could continue. Conversely, this would mean that a major slump can only be expected below the range.
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